What the data tells us

Nothing really happened from the social or onchain data perspective, we got a bit of liquidations but under $1 million is really nothing. From the social side, you can clearly see how the big positive spike in sentiment balance predicted the fast price reversal.

Important observations

MSTR has been doing heavy "wink wink nudge nudge" last few days, hinting at a partnership with big banks for their STRC product, which might put some gas in the tank for BTC (it will still blow up in the end though). Based on the last few weeks it's clear that even a few billion in buys from them will not help push the price up, but maybe if they can spin a narrative right, it can convince the broader audience that something is actually happening.

Coins in the spotlight

HYPE is currently under heavy fire, touching $22 today (almost the 10/10 bottom level) and causing serious panic among holders. Hyperliquid's recent decisions about burning or not burning the assistance fund have also added to holders' anxiety.

Conclusion

The situation today quite closely reminds me of the mid-winter 2022, when after the first sharp decline and about a month of chopping around, BTC made a lower high after which the most brutal part of the bear market started. IMO this $84-80k area can be a good candidate for a pivot point and a bounce to $100k is possible.