What the data tells us

Since the Nov 5 low, sentiment balance has shifted to mostly positive, which is not good for further price appreciation. Social volume returned to its average value range, which is expected after a big market event.

On a more positive note, when price was retesting the 99k lows on Nov 7, there was a large spike in realised profits combined with a spike in age consumed, This is a good sign because it shows that even long term holders got rattled in their confidence, which is exactly what you want to see as a contrarian trader.

Since the spike of onchain liquidations, total stablecoin debt has stayed flat or even declined, which is also a good sign indicating lack of confidence from investors - positive for a potential price growth.

Important observations

Earlier today Strategy posted a report that confirmed that they used the STRC ATM program (meaning they sold it to buy BTC), which confirmed last week's speculation as the price of STRC briefly went above $100. That was short-lived though, as it dropped sharply on Friday market close and today it's staying around $99.8 level which is below the ATM requirement. They haven't reported anything related to the IPO, which means that the $700M is yet to be deployed.

Donald Trump also tweeted on the weekend that he's promising a $2000 stimulus check to "almost every" American, which likely contributed a lot to the weekend rally. Unfortunately, that was quickly corrected by Scott Bessent - he said that the stimulus can take many forms such as tax benefit etc, which makes it much less interesting for the purpose of pumping dem bags.

Coins in the spotlight

The star of today is definitely Monad. The team tweeted the details of a very controversial public sale announcement which was received with an immediate 35% price dump.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently mostly dependent on the Saylor's bid, which should be happening from now until Thursday. After that it's anyone's guess, but you can look up how the price did after their previous IPO completion announcements (spoiler: not great)

Most of the dino coins that were running before the weekend slowed down and pulled back slightly, alt season ended up quite short-lived.