What the data tells us

Nothing really changed since yesterday, all the metrics that I'm monitoring keep showing exactly the same picture.

One thing worth noticing is, BTC ETFs started buying a lot for the first time since the whole downtrend started.

Despite the mostly positive backdrop, during the US session today BTC price fell quite sharply, which to me means that the rally is likely coming to an end.

Important observations

Just as I'm writing the article, news broke that MSCI will not exclude treasury companies from their indices. This instantly sent MSTR about 10% higher, and BTC around 1.5% higher. Still I don't believe than changes anything in the long run. Strategy gets a little bit more runway to sell more shares, but the negative factors that will eventually lead to their demise stay the same.

Conclusion

Yesterday I said "be prepared to jump ship at the first sign of weakness" and it looks like the sign has just presented itself. Even with this MSCI news I think the signal is clear, and I'm ok with missing some last bits of upside vs risking to eat a massive downtrend, so I'm staying out until the opportunity presents itself again.