What the data tells us

Not much changed compared to yesterday, except maybe one thing - DeFi leverage saw an uptick right as the market recovered and it was immediately followed by the retrace. It's a classic indication of the principle "market always goes in the opposite direction of the investors' consensus" - as soon as it feels safe to lever up, the price ends up turning down.

Important observations

STRC is holding up quite well in the last 2 trading days, frequently visiting the above $100 zone where new shares can be issued. This provides a small but consistent source of bid into BTC.

The situation with the STRE IPO funds is less optimistic. Historically, a new Strategy IPO provided a 5-7% rally in BTC, and this recent bounce from 100k to 107k fits exactly in this range. After the likely announcement on Thursday, there's not much left to push the price higher, so it's probably reasonable to expect a pullback.

Coins in the spotlight

UNI saw a decent price pop following the announcement that they're finally going to put out a proposal to turn on the protocol fee on Uniswap and do the buyback-and-burn. People have estimated that it should amount to around $400M of buybacks every year at the current swap volumes. It also spiked some controversy, as the price of UNI grew significantly right before the announcement, hinting at possible frontrunning of the announcement by the insiders.

Conclusion

The market isn't looking to frontrun Saylor's incoming bid too hard, which is a worrying sign. I'm waiting for the announcement on Thursday to see the reaction to the news and assess the longer-term situation. If we get a strong dump, that's a sign that a larger downtrend is likely.