What the data tells us

Sentiment has been mostly positive lately, can even say elevated, which is a cautionary sign. At the same time, mean dollar age keeps climbing up steadily, indicating stagnation of the onchain movement, long-term bearish sign. Stablecoin debt hasn't meaningfully changed, with just a slight uptick during the latest price recovery.

Important observations

There's a few important events happening soon, a decision on the CLARITY act on Thursday, and the Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs on Friday. The market seems to liven up in anticipation of those events, and looking at the BTC price action seems like majority of traders are expecting positive outcomes.

At the same time, Strategy's STRC found a big buyer. They reported selling more than $100M of it last week, and it's still hovering above par, indicating that the ATM program is running live. This brings another positive price driver for BTC.

Coins in the spotlight

XMR took over Zcash as the true king of privacy, rallying to almost $700 in the last few days. It doesn't look like the rally is stopping any time soon.

Conclusion

Looks like the rally is not as over as I previously anticipated, and the chance of getting to $97-100k is very real. I'm staying out of any positions for now, will try to short if we break 95 and revert back, otherwise will have to reconsider. For now I'm still expecting lower eventually.