According to our social data, commentary indicates a rising level of discussions related to the war ending across X, Reddit, Telegram, and other platforms. The two major social spikes of crowd optimism since the conflict began were:

- March 9th: Sentiment surged after U.S. messaging framed the conflict as likely short-lived, with early diplomatic chatter hinting at possible off-ramps. Despite ongoing uncertainty, traders began interpreting this as a signal the end could come quickly, reinforced by the first notable pullback in oil prices.

- March 23rd: Optimism intensified as Trump confirmed a temporary pause in strikes alongside a structured U.S. proposal to Iran, suggesting real negotiations were underway. Markets reacted immediately, with stocks and crypto rising as participants priced in a higher probability of de-escalation.

Remember that cryptocurrencies have been rising based on the increased likelihood that the conflict will soon be over. Speculative price fluctuations will continue until the 5-day pause either leads to:

A resolution: This will likely lead to an immediate breakout across crypto, with the possibility of a 'buy the rumor, sell the news' impact due to the massive FOMO effect it would cause.

A breakdown in talks: This will continue to complicate crypto market predictability, and put a potential 'ceiling' on market caps until whales & retail traders alike have a clearer picture of what the conflict will lead to. No, this scenario will not necessarily lead to a major retrace, as prices have held up well through the war thus far.

Follow along with the war discussions, and how optimistic the crowd is leaning here on the Santiment social trends dashboard!