What the data tells us

First, today we saw a $4000 range bitcoin 5 min candle (it was a red candle), something we haven't seen since October 10. During that trip to $80k a couple things happened

More than $70M of onchain liquidations happened. Also, MVRV 3-year ratio dropped below 0 for the first time since October 2023. With that, there was also a significant amount of negative realised PnL (although it's fair to say, compared to ultimate bear market bottoms it's not close). Social volume spiked even more than yesterday, and sentiment printed a fresh low.

Important observations

Yesterday was the highest ever BTC amount of outflow from ETFs, with almost 10k BTC leaving their balances. Historically that tends to happen towards market bottoms.

MSTR keeps sliding lower relative to their BTC holdings, with common stock now trading at 0.88x NAV. There's an ongoing discussion of them being excluded from several market indices, and growing concerns about their ability to repay loans and service dividends/interest obligations.

Coins in the spotlight

Just like yesterday it was showing amazing strength, today ZEC is among the loss leaders down more than 15% on the daily. Goes to show that even the strongest alts are eventually influenced by the bitcoin's decline.

Conclusion

Overall, the situation doesn't look so bad. The 82-84k area held up so far, and many of the usual bottom indicators are flashing positive signs. We might see another retest of the 80-82k, but other than that if a recovery is to happen, it should start from here.