What the data tells us

Another US market open, another massive dump. Nothing new under the sun, it's been going on consistently for the last couple of weeks. We just got another large spike of social volume, and the sentiment is lowest compared to this entire downtrend. If this doesn't get the price to reverse, I don't know what will.

Liquidation data looks promising too, declining total debt plus almost 40M of liquidations can create a support level.

Also, 3 year MVRV has just reached 0, which means that an average holder with a 3 year holding period is now breakeven, which is quite brutal considering that in the last 3 years BTC went up almost 5x.

Important observations

As the prices continue declining, crypto treasury companies are under serious fire. There's been multiple announcements of smaller BTC DATs selling their bitcoin to buyback shares (that are severely under NAV), or to fund operations. Tom Lee's BMNR is now sitting at a 3.5B unrealised loss as his average purchase price is above $4k per ETH.

Saylor's poster child preferred stock STRC depegged even more, trading between $91 and $93 today, which likely doesn't inspire much confidence in investors who were promised a "$100 bill paying 10% yield".

Coins in the spotlight

Despite the total bloodbath in almost every market segment and even in Tradfi, the privacy narrative keep showing incredible resiliency, with ZEC being up almost 1% today.

Nillion is making a lot of noise, with the coin dropping more than 50% out of the blue. The team blames this on a MM gone rogue.

Conclusion

I still believe a recovery to the $110k level is in the cards, although short-term it's just non-stop pain and suffering.