What the data tells us

So far, the observations and predictions made in the previous episodes of my market review are holding up well. Price is indeed rallying higher, having broken an important resistance zone at around $94k.

Stablecoin leverage isn't going crazy, which is good, meaning the risk appetite isn't there yet, people are staying cautious - more upside is possible.

Sentiment is moderately elevated, but social volume isn't far from the baseline - which is understandable considering the growing prices, and again lack of social volume shows no extra excitement just yet, another good sign.

Not so good sign is a steadily growing mean dollar age, which indicates that the process of redistributing coins has stopped - inflow of new money isn't really there. But that's also quite in line with my theory of the market having its final push before a deeper decline (mean dollar age shows the longer term trend).

Important observations

MSTR is teetering on the verge of 1x mNAV. They have started the year with selling around $310M of shares, 1/3 of that for buying BTC and 2/3 for servicing their interest/dividend payments. With that, seems like their "anything for the BTC yield" e.g. raising the Bitcoin Per Share metric is no longer the #1 goal, as selling shares to raise cash dilutes their BTC per share.

Coins in the spotlight

Lighter, the perp DEX coming for Hyperliquid's spotlight has recently TGE'd their coin LIT, which is up almost 20% today. Crypto twitter is torn apart between "it's another airdrop, dump it" and "hyperliquid is cooked, lighter will take over".

Conclusion

So far the uptrend looks healthy, and I don't see why it wouldn't keep going for a while. But I'm also keeping in mind that the larger trend is down, and I am prepared to abandon ship at the first signs of weakness. Target for BTC is $100-105k