Metrics used: Hyperliquid spot volume, Hyperliquid perp volume

Sometimes good data can be insanely simple, if you only know where to look. Today I will try to prove it using such a basic metric as trading volume.

Centralised crypto exchanges are notorious for wash trading, which makes reading volume patterns much harder. However, lately more and more people move their perp trading onto DEXes, of which the largest and most well-known is Hyperliquid.

You can see that the trading volume is highly cyclical, losing up to 80% every weekend. Also, it's highly dependent on the market regime, and at the extreme points of price movement it really blows up.

A great example would be early June, when both spot and perp volume sharply spiked - perp to around 2x of the baseline, and spot to more than 3x. Interestingly, you may notice that in the past few days volume blew up to a similar scale.

From that, it's possible to make a simple yet powerful argument - as this signal ended up marking bottom in June, it has a good chance to mark the opposite extreme (top) today.